编号：E-2026-2-1
题目：Industrial Transformation and Pollution Dynamics
作者：Bo Zhang
联系方式：Bo Zhang, bozhang@pku.edu.cn.
摘要：This paper constructs a multi-sector growth framework with heterogeneous pollution to study the joint dynamics of industrial upgrading and environmental quality. Industries differ in capital intensity and follow endogenous and finite life cycles consisting of expansion, peak activity, and decline, generating sequential structural transformation as the economy develops. Production generates two types of pollution: an industry-specific flow pollutant that vanishes upon exit, and a common stock pollutant that accumulates over time. Unlike existing EKC frameworks that treat pollution as homogeneous or abstract from industry turnover, the model shows that structural transformation fundamentally reshapes pollution dynamics through endogenous industry life cycles. The analysis shows that industry life cycles generate a sequence of transitional, trapezoidal Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) patterns at the sectoral level, while the common pollutant exhibits a single inverted-U-shaped EKC at the aggregate level. Policy counterfactuals reveal a capital-scarcity transmission mechanism through which policies that accelerate upgrading can raise the shadow price of capital, amplify pollution inflows, and delay environmental improvement. Implementing the socially optimal allocation requires a coordinated combination of policy instruments, and implementability constraints impose economically meaningful bounds on admissible policy parameters. These results provide a structural interpretation of EKC dynamics and clarify how policy and structural transformation jointly determine the co-evolution of economic development and environmental quality.
